An Empirical Assessment of UPI Growth Across Pre- and Post-COVID Periods
Keywords:
UPI Transactions, COVID-19 Pandemic, Digital Payments, Smartphone PenetrationAbstract
The Paper examines the evolution, performance, and determinants of Unified Payments Interface (UPI) transactions in India across three distinct phases—pre-COVID, during COVID, and post-COVID periods. Using secondary data sourced from official publications such as the Reserve Bank of India and National Payments Corporation of India, the study analyses transaction trends from 2019 to 2023. Additionally, a primary survey conducted in Anantapur district provides insights into rural–urban variations in UPI usage, income levels, smartphone adoption, and fraud experiences.
The empirical analysis employs descriptive statistics, correlation, trend analysis, hypothesis testing, and regression techniques. The findings reveal a significant increase in UPI transactions during and especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating a structural shift toward digital payments. One-sample tests confirm that transaction volumes in both COVID and post-COVID periods are significantly higher than in the pre-pandemic phase. Correlation results show a strong positive association between UPI transactions, per capita income, and smartphone penetration. Regression analysis further establishes that smartphone penetration and per capita income have a statistically significant positive impact on UPI transactions, whereas GDP growth rate does not exhibit a significant influence.
The primary survey results suggest minimal differences between rural and urban areas in terms of UPI usage and smartphone access; however, higher incidences of fraud are observed in rural regions. Overall, the study highlights the transformative role of the pandemic in accelerating digital payment adoption and emphasizes the importance of technological access, financial inclusion, and security awareness in sustaining UPI growth. The findings offer valuable implications for policymakers, financial institutions, and digital payment stakeholders in strengthening India’s move toward a cashless economy.
References
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